This is the fourth installment of a series examining the race between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears for governor. Read Part One, Part Two, and Part Three.
With millions already pouring into Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race — and expectations of a record-breaking spend — strategists on both sides agree: money alone won’t win it. But how campaigns spend it just might.
In 2021, more than $60 million was spent on political advertising in the governor’s race. This cycle, Democratic nominee and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised $16.3 million, far outpacing Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, who has brought in $5.7 million.
Campaign cash remains one of the most revealing metrics in politics. But seasoned operatives say the real question isn’t how much is raised — it’s how, when and where they spend the money..
“Campaigns are resource games,” said Matt Moran, a Republican strategist and top adviser to Gov. Glenn Youngkin. “There’s a lot of money in politics, but it’s still finite. The key is knowing when to go and how hard to hit.”
Moran and Democratic strategist Danny Kedem have spent years working on high-stakes races across Virginia. While they sit on opposite sides of the aisle, both agree early messaging — especially in today’s fractured media environment of voters getting their information from so many different sources — can set the tone for the entire race.
Kedem, a Democratic consultant with experience in statewide contests, said Sears’ challenge is using messaging to introduce herself to voters beyond the GOP base. In 2021, she spent just over $618,000 on political ads — a fraction of the $2.7 million spent by her Democratic opponent in the lieutenant governor’s race, Hala Ayala.
“The problem for Sears is that the only people who know her right now is the hardcore Republican base,” Kedem said. “They basically just kind of voted for Youngkin and then voted for her.”
Youngkin slightly outperformed the rest of the ticket in 2021, receiving 4,829 more votes than Sears.
“This election is really going to be about how she defines herself, and how she tries to define Spanberger,” Kedem said. “Will people more easily believe that she’s an extremist, or will they more easily believe that Spanberger is an extremist.”
While Kedem sees vulnerability in Sears’ limited exposure beyond the Republican base, Moran views her profile — and her personal story — as a strategic strength for messaging.
“This is the age of authenticity,” he said. “Voters are looking for candidates and leaders who are real.”
“I think the lieutenant governor has a distinct advantage,” Moran continued. “For the last four years, and even in her life and public service before she became lieutenant governor, she has walked in the footsteps of Virginians in so many different ways. And when you apply that to the fragmented way people consume their information, and the ability to target, she has a real advantage to resonate with a much more diverse set of voters.”
While Kedem says Spanberger is “exceptionally authentic,” he points to her electoral history, which demonstrates her ability to win over key suburban swing voters in three straight cycles while running for Congress as a strong example of her ability to sway the electorate.
“The fact that she has spent not only a lot of money in those areas, but has shown that she can win in crucial suburban areas, I think, is a strong one,” Kedem said.
In Spanberger’s first election for Congress in 2018, she defeated a Republican incumbent in a district that had not elected a Democrat in decades.
Then, when her district shifted from Central Virginia to the southern suburbs of Northern Virginia in 2022, she ran and won reelection to a third term.
“If a statewide Democrat is going to do well, you would have to do well in Prince William County, Spotsylvania, Fredericksburg – that area,” Kedem said.
While Kedem sees Spanberger’s strength in key Democratic areas as a major asset, Moran stresses that voter outreach will ultimately depend on targeted messaging tailored to regional concerns.
“It’s a turnout election, you have the opportunity to really dive in and drive your message in a targeted way,” Moran said. “So I expect you’re gonna see that on both sides, where it’s not like the campaign is going to be inconsistent, but what you drive to voters in Southwest Virginia is different than what you drive voters in Central Virginia and Hampton Roads because the priorities of those voters are different.”
“Virginia, in some ways, is like five or six different states,” Moran said.
Regional messaging is important, but Kedem sees a larger challenge for Sears: standing apart from the national GOP agenda.
“Some can argue that the Democratic brand is suffering, but if you think about who votes in this election and who cares about what’s happening, fundamentally, the only thing that people are focused on is Trump and what the Republicans are trying to do in Washington,” Kedem said. “Sears is gonna have to try and distance herself, on some level from [Trump]. She hasn’t gone full MAGA in what she’s saying, but you have to dig very beneath the surface to be able to see any of that. For most voters, they’re just going to see that she’s part of the Republican gang and not really defined in any meaningful way.”
Moran suggests that focusing solely on national narratives might not be enough for Spanberger, particularly if she fails to connect on a more personal level with voters.
“The fact that a primary challenge didn’t come [for Spanberger]… that feels good to the Democratic Party. But they’re going to have to present some authenticity… and if they think they can run a campaign solely against Donald Trump based on pushing a narrative about the policies that are coming out of Washington. I think they’re going to find that voters are gonna go, ‘OK, so what? What are you going to do as governor and who are you just as a person?’”
Moran says the individual candidate remains a crucial factor in winning over Virginians and points to Youngkin’s 2021 campaign as an example of how personal appeal can play a decisive role.
The 2021 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Terry McAuliffe, often tried to tie Youngkin to Trump by calling him “Trumpkin.”
Youngkin still won the election, just one year after Trump lost the commonwealth by 10 points.
“The X Factor for Glenn Youngkin in 2021 was [Youngkin]. It was who he is,” Moran said.
The media landscape has shifted
Landing on a message and defining themselves and their opponent is just the first step of a campaign’s communications.
With the rise of social media and streaming platforms, the days of relying solely on traditional TV ads are long gone. Today’s campaigns must navigate a media environment where targeting and message delivery are more sophisticated than ever.
A recent survey found that 64% of U.S. viewers now use a combination of traditional television and streaming services, while only 4% rely exclusively on traditional TV. This seismic shift forces campaigns to adapt or risk being drowned out in a sea of content.
As Moran put it, the media landscape today is the “most fragmented” it has ever been.
The challenge for campaigns is not just to be seen but to be strategically visible in a way that resonates with the right voters at the right time.
“The key to reaching voters in a fragmented environment is frequency, consistency and synergy with topics they talk about every single day,” Moran said. “Whatever people are talking about outside of politics, the synergy between that, in addition to the consistency and the frequency, that’s how you reach voters at a strategic level.”
Moran emphasized the importance of strategically aligning political ads with the everyday habits of voters, stressing that reaching them requires constant and consistent presence across various platforms.
“You have all kinds of tactics available – when someone turns on football in the fall on CBS, they’ve got to see your ad, and when someone is on Hulu catching up on The White Lotus, they’ve got to see your ad. When they pick up their phone and doom scroll at 11 pm, they’ve got to see your ad,” Moran said.
The surge in political ad spending in the 2024 cycle underscores the growing importance of digital platforms in modern campaigns. A staggering $1.35 billion was spent on ads alone on Google and Meta, according to analysis from the Brennan Center for Justice. In total, $11 billion was allocated to political ads during the 2024 election cycle, a testament to the ever-expanding landscape of electioneering.
“It’s a combination of everything,” Kedem said. “The more interesting question is not what tools are going to be used, because I think both campaigns are going to use all the tools at their disposal. They’ll use Meta, Google and Snapchat. They’ll try to organize on campuses. They’ll use all the text messaging tools and the one-to-one organizing. They’ll do all these pieces, and all of the partner groups are going to want to come in and layer in their own communication. It’s about how early they’re going to be able to do it, and how well they are going to be able to define themselves and define their opponents.”
Early money – how early is too early?
While the tools are evolving, traditional methods of media outreach still hold sway. Being the first candidate to hit the airwaves can establish crucial early momentum — provided the message is sharp and strategic.
“I think if you can be first in a way that’s loud, it’s really important,” Kedem said. “I don’t think it’s everything. You don’t have to be first to be able to win, but if your polling says that you need to define yourself and you need to define your opponent first, and you have to give up one of those lanes, then that’s a strategic structural disadvantage – because whoever goes up first will be able to control the narrative of the race.”
Being first on the air can create early momentum, but going too early can restrict your campaign spending in the closing weeks of a race. Even with that concern, Moran says that going on air earlier in the cycle is becoming more common.
“One of the questions is, how early do you start,” Moran said. “Going earlier, especially on wedge issues you might be vulnerable on, is becoming the conventional wisdom.”
As a top political adviser to Youngkin, Moran played a central role in Virginia’s 2023 General Assembly elections.
With the Supreme Court overturning Roe prior to the 2023 election, both Democrats and Republicans put a focus on abortion access. Republicans pushed for a new restriction, lowering the limit to 15 weeks.
Despite Republican efforts, Democrats retained control of the state Senate by a single seat and flipped three House districts, securing a narrow 51-49 majority.
“One of the things that I’ve looked back at personally, in 2023, there was some criticism that Republicans allowed Democrats to drive the topic of abortion, and too much money was spent on it, or we shouldn’t have taken the bait,” Moran said. “Whatever the criticism is, the truth is that there’s a very good argument to be made that Republicans should have gone earlier and not let Democrats beat them to the punch on that specific topic.”
While both sides prepare to engage in a highly targeted turnout effort, Kedem argues that Spanberger’s financial edge will play a crucial role in defining the race early — and, more importantly, defining her opponent.
This early narrative battle, Kedem explains, presents a significant hurdle for Sears. By using her financial advantage to shape the conversation from the outset, Spanberger can frame her opponent in a way that may prove difficult for Sears to counter. In particular, Kedem believes Spanberger’s law enforcement background strengthens her position by making it harder for Republicans to successfully wield law-and-order rhetoric against her.
While Republicans have traditionally gained traction by casting their opponents as weak on crime, Spanberger’s resume complicates that strategy. Before joining the CIA, she served as a law enforcement officer, giving her a foundation that Sears would find challenging to undermine. For Kedem, this makes it all the more difficult for Sears to portray Spanberger as an “extreme” liberal figure.
Traditional methods still work
Moran, who runs Creative Direct, a company specializing in direct mail and worked for the 2024 Trump campaign, points out that sending campaign literature directly to people’s homes is still very important.
“The truth is everybody checks their mail,” Moran said. “Whether it’s 10 or 15 seconds from the mailbox to the counter, it penetrates when it’s layered with texting and digital advertising through the platforms.”
Both Moran and Kedem say that “earned media,” which is coverage of a campaign from news reporters and outlets, still remains important as long as the messaging is in lockstep with their paid advertising.
“It can’t be apples to oranges,” Moran said. “There has to be some connective tissue to the paid voter contact.”
That alignment becomes even more critical, Kedem notes, in an era where voters are overwhelmed by conflicting narratives and misinformation.
“People in the world of disinformation are still looking for someone to help separate what is real from what is not real,” Kedem said.
In a state as politically and geographically diverse as Virginia, cutting through the noise and finding the most effective way to do that may be the greatest challenge of all.
Read Part One, Part Two, and Part Three of this series. The final installment, Part Five, will be out next Monday.