In a strategic push to flip specific House of Delegates districts this November, Virginia Democrats have doubled the fundraising totals of their Republican incumbents during the first quarter of this year, signaling a significant momentum shift in the state’s political landscape.
Republicans noted that many incumbents were restricted by state law from fundraising during the General Assembly session, which ran from Jan. 8 through Feb. 22, leaving challengers free to build early financial leads.
House Democrats earlier this year zeroed in on 12 Republican-held seats they hope to flip, targeting Dels. Paul Milde (Stafford), David Owen (Henrico), Bobby Orrock (Spotsylvania), Geary Higgins (Loudoun), Ian Lovejoy (Prince William), Kim Taylor (Dinwiddie), Mark Earley (Chesterfield), Carrie Coyner (Chesterfield), Chad Green (York), A.C. Cordoza (Hampton), Amanda Batten (James City) and Chris Obenshain (Montgomery) with personalized attack ads.
In those districts, Democrats reported raising $1.15 million in the first quarter of 2025, more than double the $556,052 raised by their Republican counterparts.
“Overall, the fundraising numbers indicate an enthusiasm gap; House Democrats raised more money in these competitive districts 2 to 1 – and even more overall,” said Richard Meagher a political science professor at Randolph-Macon College.
Lovejoy had not reported his numbers at the time this story was published, and Milde’s Democratic opponent also had not submitted their numbers.
House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, expressed some caution Wednesday, pointing out that Democrats outraised Republicans in 2021 and still lost the majority in the House.
“We cannot take our eye off the ball,” he said during an interview Wednesday. “We shouldn’t be popping the champagne bottles or anything like that. We have more work to do.”
“This is going to be hard, supposed to be hard,” Scott continued. “But I do think Democrats are right on the issues and right on values. And I think right now, people who are interested in seeing this state prosper are making an early bet on the Democrats in the House.”
Not all Republicans who are Democratic targets struggled with raising money this quarter, however.
Coyner and Taylor both raised more than their opponents.
Coyner, who represents a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024, outraised all three of the Democratic primary candidates in her district combined. She reported bringing $131,770 during the first quarter, with $321,881 cash on hand.
“One thing is clear: voters recognize my work toward commonsense solutions to reduce gun violence and crime, to prioritize education for our kids, and lower costs on Virginia families,” Coyner said in a statement Wednesday.
Taylor slightly outraised her Democratic opponent, Kim Pope Adams, in a rematch of a race that was so close it ended in a recount in 2023.
Taylor raised $116,577 with $61,038 cash on hand and Pope Adams raised $103,043 with $119,534 cash on hand.
“Carrie Coyner and Kim Taylor each raising over $100K while limited in session suggests that Republicans are not going to give up on these House seats,” Meagher said.
Another 2023 rematch is taking place between Democrat Lily Franklin and Obenshain in HD-41. Obenshain beat Franklin by less than one percentage point in 2023.
Franklin raised $190,338, compared to Obenshain, who raised $50,180.
The numbers offer early encouragement for Democrats who currently hold a 51-49 majority, but Meagher urges caution, noting that Republican incumbents were barred from fundraising during the legislative session.
“We should take these numbers with a grain of salt,” Meagher said. “Many of these competitive districts are currently held by Republicans who, as incumbents, could not fundraise during session. Chris Obenshein, for example, will almost certainly dramatically increase his totals over the next few months for his rematch with Lily Franklin.”
House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah, echoed that sentiment in a statement he gave to Virginia Scope Wednesday.
“The Democrats’ challengers were able to raise money during the entirety of the legislative session, something incumbents are barred from doing by law,” Gilbert said. “While Democrats have unlimited donations from billionaire allies and out-of-state interests, House Republicans are confident we will have the resources to win in November.”
Scott doesn’t believe in making those excuses, pointing to Democrats and some Republican legislators who successfully raised money during the first quarter when faced with the same restrictions.
Scott himself raised $813,254, Gilbert raised $118,750, House Appropriations Chair Luke Torian, D-Prince William, raised $113,696 and Republican target Josh Cole, D-Stafford, raised $92,630.
The House Democratic Caucus raised $1.1 million, while their Republican counterpart only raised $156,048.
Scott says Republicans face an uphill battle on the fundraising front this year, “unless they pivot away from Trump.”