by Brandon Jarvis
Emerson College released a new poll on Thursday looking at a matchup between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears (R) for governor.
Spanberger and Sears are the only declared gubernatorial candidates at this time.
“Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out,” wrote Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%,” Kimball continued. “Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%.”
51% of respondents feel their economic situation is worse than it was four years ago, while 27% feel their situation is better, and 22% feel it is no different.
“Among those who feel their economic situation is worse than four years ago, 56% think the state is headed in the right direction and 56% have a favorable view of the Governor,” Kimball wrote. Additionally, 66% of those who feel they are worse off than four years ago have an unfavorable view of President Biden, suggesting they may be blaming the president rather than Governor Youngkin for their current economic situation.”
Gov. Glenn Youngkin holds a 48% favorable rating, while 35% have an unfavorable view of him. Spanberger has a 38% favorable rating and 21% unfavorable. 24% percent are neutral, and 17% are not familiar with her.
Sears has a 33% favorable rating and 22% unfavorable. 27% are neutral, and 18% are not familiar with her.
Virginia voters are split on their view of President-elect Donald Trump: 47% have a favorable view of him and 47% have an unfavorable view of him. President Joe Biden holds a 43% favorable rating among Virginia voters, while 50% have an unfavorable view of him.
59% percent of voters think Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 41% think the state is on the wrong track.
The top issue for Virginia voters is the economy (38%) followed by housing affordability (14%), healthcare (10%), education (8%), threats to democracy (8%), crime (7%), immigration (7%), and abortion access (5%).
The candidates on some of these issues
Spanberger’s campaign so far has been focused on middle-ground issues like lower prices and fighting inflation, an area that this poll shows is important to voters.
Sears recently wrote about growing Virginia’s economy in an op-ed.
“We must strengthen public-private partnerships that drive innovation,” she wrote. “We must continue our aggressive push to attract and retain new world-class companies. And we must invest in workforce development to prepare our Virginians for the jobs of the future.”
On abortion access, Spanberger often talks of her support of keeping access to abortion and reproductive care in Virginia.
In September, on the second anniversary of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, Spanberger released a statement calling its codification.
“On the second anniversary of this dark day in our nation’s history, we must recommit ourselves to codifying Roe v. Wade and resisting all attempts to turn back the clock on women’s rights,” she said. “As lawmakers, we must protect the right to choose — and all the fundamental freedoms that we hold dear.”
In the past, Sears has been supportive of adding restrictions to a woman’s right to an abortion in Virginia. She faced backlash in 2021 during her lieutenant governor campaign for stating during an interview that she would support the six-week heartbeat ban that Texas implemented.
“Well I can tell you that would be me, that I would support it,” she said during the 2021 interview with Newsmax.
In 2022, after Roe was overturned, Sears said she would support a 15-week ban on abortion.
On education, Sears has been pushing for state funding to be given to students in Virginia to use for tuition and other educational expenses.
“Students stuck in schools, because of their zip code, deserve a lifeline – not an outdated, one-size-fits-all approach that will hold them back even farther,” she wrote. “That’s why I am sponsoring legislation to create new opportunities for financially disadvantaged students. SB533/HB1164, Education Excellence for All, which will allow parents of low-income, at-risk children to use the state, not federal or local, portion of education funding for qualified educational expenses, like tuition, textbooks, additional tutoring, achievement tests.”
Both bills were killed by the Democratic-controlled General Assembly.
Sears also has a concern over race-based policies in education, her campaign told Virginia Scope. She wants merit-driven approaches to ensure fair treatment and strong academic standards for all students.
Spanberger’s congressional website says she worked in Congress to “give every Virginia student access to a high-quality public education, and she is opposed to efforts that seek to privatize or erode faith in our public education system.”
She also introduced legislation in Congress last year that would help local school divisions recruit, train and retain educators and school administrators.
“Allowing more educators-in-training to get hands-on experience in the classroom as they earn their degree is a proven way to grow a strong education workforce,” she said in October.
56% of respondents agree it is possible that the heavy snowstorms could be caused by climate change, while 44% disagree.
The Emerson College Polling Virginia survey was conducted January 6-8, 2025. The sample of Virginia registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.