VPAP broke down the 2024 congressional election votes by House of Delegates and state Senate districts. If these trends continue into future state elections, Democrats would gain seats in both chambers.
According to the VPAP analysis, Democrats won 24 of the 40 state Senate seats. They currently hold a 21-19 majority in the chamber.
The three seats that are currently held by Republicans but went Democratic earlier this month are:
- SD-17 in Hampton Roads voted Democratic 51% in November.
- Sen. Emily Jordan (R) won this seat by five points in 2023.
- SD-27 in Northern Virginia voted Democratic 51% in November.
- Sen. Tara Durant (R) won this seat by two points in 2023.
- SD-24 voted Democratic 52% in November.
- Sen. Danny Diggs (R) won this seat by 1% in 2023.
Elections are not until 2027 for the Senate, so a lot could change between now and then.
VPAP also broke down votes by House districts.
Democrats received more than 50% of the vote in 54 House districts, and one district voted 50%- 48% in favor of the Democrats.
Republicans received more than 50% of the vote in 44 House districts.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the House, and all 100 seats are up for election in 2025.
- HD-75 voted for Democrats by eight points this November.
- Del. Carrie Coyner (R) won this seat by six points in 2023.
- In HD-57, Democrats received 51% of the vote this November.
- Del. David Owen (R) won this seat by two points in 2023.
- In HD-82, Democrats received 53% of the vote this November.
- Del. Kim Taylor (R) won this seat by 53 votes in 2023. (Kim Pope Adams has already declared her campaign for a rematch against Taylor.)
- In HD-89, Democrats received 50% of the vote this November compared to the Republicans 48%.
- Del. Baxter Ennis (R) won in 2023 by two points.
- In HD-86, Democrats and Republicans received 50% of the vote this November.
- Del. A.C. Cordoza (R) won this seat by 13 points in 2023.