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A new poll from Monmouth University shows Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe still slightly leading his Republican opponent Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia gubernatorial race. 801 Virginia voters were drawn from a list of registered voters to conduct this poll between Sept. 22 and Sept. 26. 37% of the respondents identified as Independent, 33% Democrat, and 30% Republican.
48% of the respondents said they currently support McAuliffe while 43% said they support Youngkin. This is virtually unchanged from the Democrat’s 47% to 42% lead in Monmouth’s August poll. McAuliffe continues to have an advantage among minorities — 83% of Black voters aid they support McAuliffe compared to just 3% for Youngkin. 53% of Latinos, Asians, and multiracial voters said they support McAuliffe compared to 28% for Youngkin.
Youngkin holds a large 57% to 36% lead among white voters, but there is a split based on education. Youngkin’s lead with this group is largely due to 66% of white voters without a bachelor’s degree supporting him. White college graduates prefer McAuliffe 50% of the time compared to 43% for Youngkin.
Respondents said that the economy, pandemic, and education are the top three issues for them right now. The poll showed that McAuliffe has an advantage on these issues. On being trusted more to handle the pandemic, 41% trusted McAuliffe and 28% trusted Youngkin. McAuliffe’s lead shrunk on handling education and schools with 37% trusting him compared to 33% for Youngkin. McAuliffe had a one-point lead over Youngkin, the former finance executive, in handling the economy.
On masks and vaccine requirements, 62% of respondents support reinstating mask and social distancing guidelines. 59% of respondents supported a statewide Covid vaccine requirement for people in certain professions, such as health care workers and school teachers. McAuliffe has pushed hard for both of these things, including more vaccine requirements, while Youngkin urges people to receive the vaccine but has stopped short of supporting mandates.
Regionally, McAuliffe enjoys a large advantage in Northern Virginia with 58% of respondents saying they support him compared to 29% for Youngkin. McAuliffe also leads in the Tidewater region 56% to 34%.
Youngkin has a 24-point lead in western Virginia at 58% to 34%, which is similar to his 30-point lead there last month. Support in the central part of Virginia along the I-95 corridor has flipped since August, however. Youngkin holds a 51% to 40% edge in this region, whereas McAuliffe had a 53% to 43% lead there in August.
According to Monmouth, Gov. Ralph Northam won Northern Virginia by 35 points, the Tidewater area by 13 points, and the central region by 9 points. Northam lost western Virginia by 23 points (38% to 61%) in 2017.
This latest poll comes as the narrative and media attention around Virginia’s gubernatorial race have shifted quite suddenly towards this being a race Republicans could actually win. McAuliffe, who has said during the entire campaign that he is running like he is 10-points down, is facing a tough challenge from Youngkin. Many people have called Virginia a blue state in recent years after major gains by the state Democrats made under the Trump presidency, but Youngkin has so far successfully kept the majority of his party held together and is building momentum in the final weeks of the race.
Youngkin will need the turnout to be high as most Republican strategists in the state realize that there are just more Democratic voters in the state. This means he will also need low Democratic enthusiasm, which makes the recent strategy of advertising his momentum so strongly a potentially risky move. Unengaged Democratic voters that think the state is safe-blue who are also trying to tune out of politics in the post-Trump era might tune back in if the McAuliffe messaging of “Glenn Trumpkin” and the news of a toss-up reach them.
“We are winning!” Macaulay Porter, a spokeswoman for Youngkin said last week. “There’s little enthusiasm among Virginians for a 40-year politician that failed to deliver during his first chance as governor, and multiple polls are showing that Glenn Youngkin has tremendous support across the ideological spectrum and is beginning to pull away in this race.”
Virginia has historically voted for a governor that is opposite of the party of the current president. McAuliffe’s campaign pointed out that he is the only candidate in a long time that has won the Virginia governor’s race while the same party controlled the White House. McAuliffe’s slim 2013 victory over Ken Cuccinelli took place just one year after Barack Obama was re-elected to a second term as president.
“Virginia has a decades-long history of electing a governor from the opposite party that won the White House the year before, and Terry is the only candidate to defy those odds in nearly 40 years when he won in 2013,” Renzo Olivari, a spokesperson for McAuliffe said last week. “As he did before, Terry is running a 24/7 campaign laser-focused on the issues Virginians care most about – defeating COVID, creating good jobs, making health care more affordable, and giving every child a world-class education.”
In a race where the margins might matter, progressive third-party candidate Princess Blanding is also on the ballot. Her name was not included with this polling from Monmouth.
There are 36 days until election day on Nov. 2.
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