President Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Virginia, September 2020.
After finally finding agreement in the State Central Committee on the nomination process, Republicans in Virginia now have to focus on nominating a gubernatorial candidate and uniting behind them in November. It looks easy on paper, but when the nomination contenders who span a wide spectrum of ideology and rhetoric spend several months beating each other up, the wounds and egos can be slow to heal.
Republicans have not won statewide in Virginia since 2009 and many people believe that this year is the best shot they will have after Trump’s loss in 2020. Excluding Terry McAuliffe’s win in 2013, Virginia has historically elected the opposite party of the White House when choosing a new governor — but even with that in their favor, it is still a tall order for Republicans in a Commonwealth that provided Biden with a 10-point victory last year.
That is why it is very important for the eventual nominee to bring the entire party together in November. They will need every single Republican vote as they attempt to push back the blue wave that continuously crashed across the Commonwealth from 2017 to 2020. In a series of Democratic wins over those years, they flipped three congressional seats and gained total control of the state government leading to hundreds of new progressive laws.
In an interview, Rformerlieutenant governor of Virginia Bill Bolling (R) said he believes that victory for any of the GOP candidates will be impossible without complete support from the party. “There are obviously a lot of divisions in the Republican Party right now. That’s one of the reasons why Republicans haven’t won a statewide campaign in Virginia more than a decade,” Bolling said. “I’m not sure that any candidate can bridge all of those divisions, but if Republicans are going to have any chance of winning in November they have to figure out a way to rally around their eventual nominee. Otherwise, victory will be impossible.” Bolling was on the ticket the last time Republicans won statewide in Virginia.
Candidates Amanda Chase and Pete Snyder have fully embraced the Trump voters and their talking points while Kirk Cox and Glenn Youngkin have moved towards the establishment and moderate voters — perhaps in an attempt to appeal to a larger electorate in November.
“The divide between a more ‘respectable’ establishment and much more conservative grassroots is a challenge for any candidate to navigate,” said Richard Meagher, associate professor of political science at Randolph Macon College. “But it’s particularly important right now for Virginia Republicans, who are on a state-wide losing streak in a state that is increasingly blue. If they have a hope of winning a statewide office this year, they will have to find a path to uniting behind their slate of candidates.”
In a statement Sunday, former House Speaker Kirk Cox said he doesn’t want Republicans to lose hope just because they have been experiencing a losing streak. “It’s been 12 years since Virginia has elected a Republican to statewide office, but we shouldn’t lose hope: More and more Virginia Republicans are showing up to get involved in the process to identify a candidate that can win in November,” he said. “Our party needs a proven conservative who has won under the toughest circumstances, and I currently hold the bluest district of any Republican. My message of fighting back against one party control and leading Virginia forward resonates, and gives us the best shot at victory in the general election.”
The Snyder campaign believes that the party will unite behind the policies of their candidate. “Virginia Republicans are lining up to support Pete because he is the trusted conservative outsider that is fighting for the issues that matter most to the people of the Commonwealth— opening the schools, saving the economy, and protecting constitutional rights,” said Lenze Morris, spokesperson for the Snyder campaign.
State Senator Amanda Chase has been leading in the early polls while also speaking out loudly against the recent actions of party leaders for months of disarray in choosing a nomination process. She said she isn’t worried about not gaining the full support of her party if she becomes the nominee. “I’m the People’s Governor and they have united behind me; together we will make America and Virginia FIRST,” she said in a text message Sunday. “I’ve already united the people I’m not worried about the politicians. It’s time to finally have a governor who is a voice for the people.”
The campaign for Glenn Youngkin, a newcomer to Virginia politics with a lot of his own money that he can use as a weapon in a statewide campaign, cited his Virginia Wins initiative, which is a commitment to investing in down-ballot Republicans across Virginia, as a reason the party will unite behind him. “Glenn Youngkin has already taken steps to support and unite the Republican party through his Virginia Wins initiative, which will help elect Republicans up and down the ballot in Virginia,” said Macaulay Porter, spokesperson for the Youngkin campaign. “As governor, Glenn will continue to bring people together to fix problems, get the job done, and make Virginia the best place to live, work, and raise a family.”
A common enemy, however, could be the perfect antidote for hurt feelings in November.
One former Republican Party official says it will be the current front runner for the Democratic nomination that brings the GOP together. “I suspect [Terry] McAuliffe will do all the uniting required,” said Shaun Kenney the former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia. “Bad policy makes for great cement.”
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